Turner Downs Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KRAH 041906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area overnight and stall out over
central NC through the rest of the work week, allowing a more
typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

As fierce as the rain was with Tropical Storm Isaias just 8-12 hours
ago, as of 2pm the center of the storm was about 65 miles west of
New York City, according to the National Hurricane Center. In its
wake, diurnal cumulus has developed across much of the region. A
surface front is crossing the Appalachian Mountains resulting in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. While the bulk of
these showers are along the spine of the mountains, there are a few
showers that have developed to the east of the mountains. Have
included chance pops in the Triad for the late afternoon and
evening, spreading slight chance pops to US 1 during the evening
hours. After the loss of daytime heating, do not think that there
should be any precipitation much past midnight. Patchy fog should be
expected across the eastern half of the forecast area where the
heaviest rain from Isaias fell with partial clearing and light wind.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

Today`s cold front will stall across central NC tomorrow, allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue during the
afternoon and overnight. With modest instability and little wind
shear, the chance for severe storms should be minimal. Temperatures
will be seasonal, with temperatures around 90/70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

The cold front will remain stalled across central NC before washing
out across the area on Saturday. It appears the most favored period
for convection across central NC will be on Friday and Friday night
when the front approaches and central NC will be on the periphery of
a short wave trough across the OH Valley moves into the mid Atlantic
and Friday night. Highs will range in the mid to upper 80s.

The upper flow becomes more northwesterly over the weekend into
early next week which will allow slightly drier air mass to move
into the region and result in less convective coverage. Highs will
range in the upper 80s to around 90.

A flat upper level ridge tries to develop early next week a across
the southern Plains and Deep South. This will support a more
traditional summerlike pattern with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Will need to monitor the potential for convective
complexes to develop atop the ridge and move into the mid Atlantic.
Highs will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A brief MVFR ceiling cannot be ruled out at any site this afternoon
and an isolated shower cannot be ruled out late this afternoon and
this evening near INT/GSO, but otherwise conditions are expected to
be VFR. There is a minimal chance of restrictions at KRWI after all
the Isaias rainfall, then VFR conditions are expected to continue
into Wednesday.

Outlook for 18z/Wed through Sunday... Generally VFR conditions are
expected with the exception of scattered MVFR conditions with
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Green

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion