Turner Downs Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KRAH 180730

National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

High pressure will build across the area this week, resulting in dry
conditions with gradually increasing temperatures. A late week cold
front will bring a chance of showers to the area, along with cooler
temperatures for the weekend.


As of 315 AM Monday...

Another sunny day across Central NC today as high pressure over the
TN Valley today will influence dry and cool advection across the
region today. The upper level trough associated with the low in
eastern Canada will continue to move offshore today. A ridge
building in the Central Plains will continue to shift east
continuing a NW flow across the Mid-Atlantic region.  As mentioned
before, the surface high will shift slowly from the TN valley and
into our region late tonight early tomorrow. Temperatures today will
be near normal with highs in the low 70s NW and mid 70s SE. Lows
tonight will be in the low/mid 40s across the region.


As of 330 AM Monday...

Tuesday we will see a similar scenario as dry conditions continue
thanks to the cool surface high still dominating the region. The
upper level ridge now shifting over the eastern half of CONUS,
brings weak upper level gradients, thus weak winds and another night
of exceptional radiational cooling. Highs will be 3 to 5 degrees
above normal with temperatures in low/mid 70s. Lows will be in the
mid/upper 40s.


As of 330 AM Monday...

Longwave upper level ridging will continue to build across the
eastern CONUS Wednesday before flattening somewhat on Thursday,
resulting in above normal temperatures with dry conditions. As the
surface ridge migrates offshore on Wednesday into Thursday, high
temps will generally reach the mid to upper 70s with some spots
approaching the 80 degree mark Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper low will move from the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes, with an associated surface cold front approaching the
Mid Atlantic on Friday. There are still some uncertainties with
respect to exactly when the front will make it through NC on Friday
(morning vs afternoon hours) but the general consensus among the 00Z
ensembles is that it should be east of the area by Friday night. The
best chance of rain should come during the afternoon hours with
conditions rapidly drying out Friday night. Some thunder is also
possible mainly east of US-1 where instability will be maximized.
From there, dry weather returns for the weekend.

Temperatures behind the cold front should return to near normal
values with highs in the upper 60s/lows in the mid to upper 40s.


As of 115 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will continue today as high pressure influences the
Mid-Atlantic region. Light westerly winds in the morning will become
a tad stronger, up to 10kts, from the NW in the afternoon with an
occasional gust up to 15kts. Expect winds to decrease once again in
the early evening and overnight hours.

Outlook: High pressure will result in VFR conditions through most of
the upcoming week until the next weather system moves into the
region on Friday.





NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion